East Coast Climate Change Scenario Planning

 
 

Scenario planning is a tool that helps people and organizations prepare for uncertain futures. We know that climate change is already creating a time of transition for East Coast fisheries, but we cannot be sure of the precise nature of the changes to come. In late 2020, East Coast fishery management organizations decided to conduct a scenario planning exercise to explore jurisdictional and governance issues related to climate change and shifting fishery stocks. The scenario planning work occurred through a structured, multi-step process over a two-year period (2021-2023).

The early phases of the initiative focused on development of a scenario framework which described four different possible futures for east coast fisheries in an era of climate change. Hundreds of fishery stakeholders participated in the development of the scenario framework. Later in the process, fishery managers used the scenarios as a platform from which to explore the consequences for fishery governance and management and to consider changes that may be beneficial under a range of different future conditions.

Project Objectives

  1. Explore how East Coast fishery governance and management issues will be affected by climate driven change in fisheries, particularly changing stock availability and distributions.

  2. Advance a set of tools and processes that provide flexible and robust fishery management strategies, which continue to promote fishery conservation and resilient fishing communities, and address uncertainty in an era of climate change.

Scenario Planning Outcomes

Many documents were produced throughout the scenario planning process. Final themes and potential actions that emerged during the initiative are summarized in two main documents.

Scenario Planning Summit Report

The capstone to this initiative was the East Coast Scenario Planning Summit, held on February 15-16, 2023. The goal of the Summit was to develop a set of potential governance and management actions resulting from a scenario-based exploration of the future. The Summit report provides a comprehensive summary of discussion themes, outcomes, and “potential actions” identified by summit participants.

Potential Action Menu

The Potential Action Menu expands on, clarifies, and prioritizes the potential governance and management actions identified during the summit. This document is intended to be an evolving document, used as a planning tool to guide development of collective and individual priorities, and a place to capture future issues and ideas. Actions are organized and prioritized under three overarching themes: Cross-Jurisdictional Governance, Managing Under Increased Uncertainty, and Data Sources and Partnerships.

Scenario Planning Toolkit

A scenario planning toolkit was created to support ongoing conversations about how climate change will affect fisheries. The toolkit consists of materials and guidance for other fishery stakeholder groups who want to undertake their own scenario work, with resources including a set of overview slides, worksheet templates, draft agendas for various types of sessions, guidance on different scenario approaches, and guidelines for facilitators.

Next Steps

Two new groups are being formed to help support the implementation of scenario planning outcomes. The East Coast Climate Coordination Group will be responsible for tracking progress toward implementation of potential actions, promoting prioritization of actions (jointly or by individual management organizations), estimating resources needed, and supporting coordinated implementation. The East Coast Climate Core Team will track information and changes relevant to East Coast fisheries, identify ideas that are worthy of consideration by the Coordination Group, and identify possible actions to undertake.

Scenario Planning Process

The East Coast Climate Change Scenario Planning process consists of six major phases. Key documents and developments from each phase are described below.

Phase 1: Orientation

(November 2020 - July 2021)

The Northeast Region Coordinating Council (NRCC) formally initiated the climate change scenario planning initiative in November 2020. In early 2021 a core team was formed and begin working with a process facilitator to develop a framework for the scenario planning process.

Phase 2: Scoping

(August - September 2021)

The purpose of scoping was to introduce the initiative to stakeholders, to seek input on the draft project objectives, and to solicit input from stakeholders on factors and issues that might shape the future of East Coast fisheries. Scoping consisted of a series of  three kick-off webinars as well as an online questionnaire to capture feedback from a broad range of stakeholders.

Phase 3: Exploration

(February - March 2022)

Building on input gathered during scoping, the Exploration phase included a series of three webinars which focused on identifying and analyzing the major drivers of oceanographic, biological, and social and economic change. The outcomes of these webinars formed the “building blocks” that were used to develop draft scenarios in the next phase.

Phase 4: Scenario Creation

(June-August 2022)

During the Scenario Creation phase, participants developed and refined a set of draft scenarios that describe different possible futures for east coast fisheries in an era of climate change.

Part 1: Scenario Creation Workshop. In June 2022, a group of about 70 stakeholders attended a Scenario Creation Workshop to develop an initial set of scenarios, describing several different possible futures facing East Coast fisheries out to 2042.

Part 2: Scenario Deepening. In August 2022, two Scenario Deepening webinars gave all interested stakeholders an opportunity to review, validate, and add details to the draft scenarios that were developed during the Scenario Creation Workshop. The draft scenarios were revised to incorporate feedback received during the scenario deepening process.

Phase 5: Applications

(September 2022-February 2023)

During the Applications phase, managers used the scenarios to identify the consequences for future fishery governance and management and suggest recommendations for changes to existing approaches or arrangements.

Part 1: Manager Sessions. Small groups of fishery managers participated in three “brainstorming sessions” in September/October 2022. These sessions focused on generating ideas for possible actions and strategies managers might consider in response to each scenario.

Part 2: Applications Discussions with Councils/Commission. During November-December 2022, each of the three East Coast Councils and the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission held discussions at their respective meetings to discuss the scenarios and generate recommendations for applications.

Part 3: Summit Meeting. A summit meeting was held on February 15-16, 2023 with representatives from participating organizations across regions and jurisdictions. The summit served as a venue to discuss input from manager sub-group and individual management body sessions, with the goal of developing a final set of governance, management, and monitoring recommendations from the scenario planning process.

Phase 6: Monitoring

Monitoring of indicators relevant to the outcomes and potential actions from this process is expected to be ongoing. The Potential Action Menu describes the proposed formation of several new  groups intended to evaluate and address the potential actions highlighted below as well as to regularly review changes and factors shaping East Coast fishery management. Among the potential tasks for a proposed Climate Innovation Group are to regularly review and evaluate ecosystem and socioeconomic information from various partners, assess whether conditions are changing in important ways relative to the scenarios, track various initiatives and tools that could be applied to various action items, and generate new potential actions for consideration by the newly formed East Coast Climate Coordination Group.

Participating Organizations

The following organizations are working together on this joint initiative: Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC), New England Fishery Management Council (NEFMC), Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council (MAFMC), South Atlantic Fishery Management Council (SAFMC), and NOAA Fisheries.

Core Team

The core team for this project, listed below, served as the primary technical group working on this project in coordination with a contracted facilitator. Along with the facilitator, the core team was responsible for much of the research, planning, coordination, and compiling of materials for this process.

  • Kiley Dancy, Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council

  • Toni Kerns, Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission

  • Moira Kelly, NMFS Greater Atlantic Regional Fisheries Office

  • Travis Ford, NMFS Greater Atlantic Regional Fisheries Office

  • Michelle Bachman, New England Fishery Management Council

  • Sean Lucey, NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center

  • Wendy Morrison, NMFS Headquarters

  • Roger Pugliese, South Atlantic Fishery Management Council

  • Karla Gore, NMFS Southeast Regional Office

Document Archive

Planning and Orientation

Scoping

Exploration

Scenario Creation

Applications

Videos and Webinar Recordings

Additional Resources